How Did Falls, Waukesha County Vote in Past Presidential Elections?
Though heavily Republican, Waukesha County represented the third largest bloc of Democrat voters across the state in the past two presidential elections. Though Waukesha County is expected to be deep red Tuesday, how much blue will be sprinkled in?
As Menomonee Falls voters prepare to head to the polls Tuesday to make history, it doesn’t hurt to revisit a little election history.
It’s no feat in fortune telling to say Menomonee Falls and the rest of Waukesha County will remain Republican strongholds in 2012. In the 2004 and 2008 presidential elections, votes cast for the Republican candidates outnumbered those cast for Democrats by a two-to-one margin in Waukesha County. However, Waukesha County also turns out the third highest total of Democrat voters in the state trailing Milwaukee and Dane counties.
Here’s how the votes added up for the presidential candidates in Menomonee Falls as compared to the Waukesha County, Wisconsin and the United States in 2004 and 2008:
|2004 Presidential Election||Bush/Cheney||Kerry/Edwards||Total Votes|
|2008 Presidential Election||McCain/Palin||Obama/Biden||Total Votes|
From 2004 to 2008, the overall number of votes cast in Waukesha County increased roughly 2,500. However, Democrat voters in Waukesha County increased by nearly 10,000. The change in Democrat totals accounted for a nearly five percent shift in Falls and Waukesha County. The numbers seem to affirm the old cliche' that turnout is key - just as it is in any election.
In 2004, John Kerry defeated George W. Bush in Wisconsin by just 11,400 votes. With razor-thin margins expected in 2012, vote distribution in Waukesha County could signficiantly impact the winner of Wisconsin's 10 electoral votes, and potentially the whole election.
In four of the last five state polls, President Barack Obama seems to have an advantage over Gov. Mitt Romney. An Oct. 29 Rasmussen poll determined the race was a tie. However, political pundits argue that the polls are oversampling Democrats and using samples based upon 2008 turnout totals. Regardless, the race seems to be tight based upon the flurry of campaign events hosted by both parties in the Badger State in the final days before the election.
The 2012 gubernatorial recall election was an election that nearly reached presidential election turnout numbers. The election offers a glimpse at what could be expected come Tuesday.
|2012 Gubernatorial Recall||Scott Walker||Tom Barrett||Total Votes|
The latest Public Policy Poll gives Obama a 49 percent to 45 percent edge among independent voters in Wisconsin. The question remains, will vote totals on Tuesday closer resemble the 2012 gubernatorial election, or the 2008 presidential election?